Oscar Prediction: Best Picture

Best Picture

Babel
The Departed
Letters From Iwo Jima
Little Miss Sunshine
The Queen

The Independent Spirit Awards last night were somewhat of a Little Miss Sunshine love-fest. I, for one, won't be surprised if it takes the Oscar.

Giving Scorcese the Directing award will probably satisfy voters' desire to finally recognize him. I enjoyed The Departed, but I'm not so sure it's Scorcese's best work. Admitedly I haven't seen all of his films, but when I compare The Departed to Taxi Driver, I feel like it can't be his best because Taxi Driver is such an amazing piece of work. For that reason, in part, I don't think The Departed should/will win.

Babel has a chance (it won the Globe), but Little Miss Sunshine won the SAG for Ensemble Cast (just like Crash did last year). I'm of the opinion that Crash was not, in fact, the best picture made last year. There are similarities between Crash and Babel (big cast; interconnectedness), but I think Babel is a superior piece of work compared to Crash. That being said, I perceive Babel as being at a disadvantage because it is so very global. Sometimes the Academy has a tough time getting out of the Hollywood bubble.

The general consensus is that the field is wide open this year. Nothing stands out as clearly as the best film of the year, but I haven't heard anything to the effect that any of the nominees don't deserve to be there, only surprise at the absence of other films.

I'm going to join a few people on the limb predicting Little Miss Sunshine will win. I will probably be wrong; I usually am (see Best Picture Oscars not won by The Hours, The Aviator, Brokeback Mountain, and Saving Private Ryan).